Idalia brings Tampa Bay water and a whole lot of worry

As Hurricane Idalia strengthened on Tuesday, so too did hope in Tampa Bay that the region would sustain a graze wound rather than a direct hit.

As the storm ran parallel to Florida’s coast, forecasters’ confidence grew throughout Tuesday that Idalia would continue barreling through the unusually hot waters of the Gulf of Mexico, gathering force, while passing west of Tampa Bay overnight. The projected distance between catastrophe and Tampa Bay’s century-old streak of near misses: about 100 miles.

If that’s the case, of course, not everyone will be spared.

Early Wednesday morning, the storm is expected to rampage into the Big Bend area, the elbow of the state where the north-south coastline transitions to east-west. Officials there intensified their evacuation orders Tuesday, urging residents to get out of a region that hasn’t been directly hit by a major hurricane since the 1800s. A high percentage of residents in this poorer, more rural part of the state live in mobile homes — often the first structures to yield to hurricane winds. Several counties in the area also don’t have shelters that can withstand major winds, and instead were sending people into Tallahassee.

In Tampa Bay, lashing from outer bands caused scattered power outages for more than 1,000 people. Idalia was a Category 2 storm Tuesday evening, packing winds of over 100 mph as it intensified about 190 miles southwest of Tampa. The National Hurricane Center, in its 11 p.m. update, said the latest forecast calls for Idalia to become a major Category 4 hurricane by the time it makes landfall.

Local officials emphasized that a direct hit isn’t the only danger hurricanes pose. Just because Idalia’s strongest winds were not expected to throttle this area doesn’t mean residents are completely safe from its water, officials warned.

“The risks associated with a hurricane are much more than just the cone,” said Federal Emergency Management Agency press secretary Jeremy Edwards.

Officials warned of possible tornadoes spinning off from the storm, raising anxiety levels even more. As the storm passes Tampa Bay, its counterclockwise churn could push water toward low-lying neighborhoods just in time for high tide.

At a Home Depot on Dale Mabry Highway in Tampa, Jim Evangelista looked to be making typical Saturday morning purchases: a green garden hose and giant bags of soil. But he planned for those bags to do double duty as sandbags for the storm, he said.

“I’m worried about the storm surge and the water,” Evangelista said.

As the Tampa Bay region recently learned during 2020′s Tropical Storm Eta, even a small surge can be wildly destructive. And storm surge — not the wind — was the deadliest element of Hurricane Ian last year.

About 2 p.m. Wednesday is the expected time of St. Petersburg’s peak full moon king tide — a twice-yearly supertide that could make it so waters may rise even after the worst of the storm has passed. Some streets in St. Petersburg’s Shore Acres neighborhood were already flooding Tuesday afternoon, with cars forming wakes between emerald lawns as they drove.

Tampa Bay’s predicted peak surge may reach between 4 and 6 feet, officials said around 5 p.m., though maps Tuesday night from the National Hurricane Center showed lower levels over much of the region.

Pasco County braced for two surges: one in the wee hours Wednesday morning as the storm passed, and another in the afternoon, leaving a narrow window for rescue operations.

Local, state and federal officials urged everyone who has been ordered to evacuate to leave their homes, often citing storm surge.

“You’re not gonna win that battle if you decide to stay behind for that,” said Gov. Ron DeSantis at an afternoon news conference.

“Don’t take anything for granted,” Tampa Mayor Jane Castor said en route to one of the city’s three emergency response centers. “Mother Nature is ultimately in charge.”

With Hurricane Idalia coming less than a year after Hurricane Ian also placed Tampa Bay on high alert, the experiences of past storms shaped local residents’ responses.

Marque Amason, 56, said he isn’t worried about Idalia.

”No biggie if you know what you’re doing,” said the Tampa shrimp boat captain. A year ago in the Fort Myers Beach area, Amason rode out Hurricane Ian on a boat called “Babygirl,” which ended up in a parking lot.

At an afternoon briefing to Pasco’s emergency response team, county emergency management director Andrew Fossa pointed to maps showing which neighborhoods could be inundated by storm surge, coupled with river flooding. Still, just 314 residents had shown up to its six shelters by late afternoon.

“It’s horrible,” Fossa said. “People have become very complacent.”

But for some Tarpon Springs residents, past storms had the opposite effect.

At the edge of the sponge docks, Keaton Tunstall, who co-owns a seafood restaurant and bar, said this tightknit community often relies on fishing captains as their first line of information when a storm draws close.

People used to take hurricane warnings lightly, he said, but a shrimping boat captain died during Hurricane Irma, and that’s made everyone more cautious.

”Irma was an eye-opener. Ian was crazy,” Tunstall said. “Everyone is on high alert now, for good reason.”

The “open” sign shone red in the window after 3 p.m. Tuesday at Crystal River’s Dockside Ice Cream Shoppe.

Dillon Dawson, 30, and Gail George, 76, had come in to put up tables and chairs. He fixes the cones; she orders all the supplies.

They had only seen two customers: a couple who, after the sweaty work of preparing their house for the storm, wanted a few scoops on waffle cones. Made fresh in house — except for Tuesday.

“Because we figured,” George said, “what’s the point?”

Crystal River, the town of about 3,000 famous for its manatee tours, can expect between 7 and 11 feet of storm surge, national forecasters said. Citrus County officials ordered many residents to leave.

Big Bend was bracing for even worse, with surge projections as high as 15 feet.

Lt. Jeffrey Yarbrough, spokesperson for the sheriff’s office in Wakulla County directly south of Tallahassee, said that while he sensed residents were taking the storm seriously, people in the area have never experienced a direct hit from something as powerful as Idalia.

“Do I think some people may be caught off guard with how severe the impacts are to our area? Possibly,” he said. “I know a lot of people like to have a wait-and-see attitude, but when it’s happening throughout the night, you may not have an opportunity at 4 a.m. to go.”

About two hours after Florida Highway Patrol officers knocked on Carol Carlin’s door and gave her a 4 p.m. deadline to leave the small Big Bend island of Cedar Key, Carlin surveyed empty clothing racks in the shop her family has owned for about 13 years, called Island Trading Post.

Friends and family loaded a box truck with black bulky trash bags full of their most valuable merchandise to haul to Orlando, in case their wooden, old-Florida waterfront shop is beyond saving or gone when they return.

Few sounds could be heard besides the low hum of the occasional golf cart rolling by and the clanking of people carting things to their trucks. Cutting through clearly: the sound of the tide lapping at concrete pylons holding up the boutiques and restaurants.

Carlin, 28, said many are leaving the tiny gulf coast town. But a friend has insisted on staying on the island.

”He said his house is rated for a Category 5 storm, but is it?” she said, with a furrowed, dripping brow. “It’s never been tested.”

This story includes reporting from Times staff writers Sue Carlton, Max Chesnes, Romy Ellenbogen, Jack Evans, Olivia George, Ian Hodgson, Sam Ogozalek, Lauren Peace, Jack Prator, Zachary T. Sampson, Langston Taylor, as well as Times-Herald Tallahassee reporter Ana Ceballos and Miami Herald reporter Joey Flechas.

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